The forecast for 2023 is hot

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According to the Met Office, 2023 will be a hotter year than 2022. Why? We will, an unusual three-year weather pattern that typically has a cooling effect on our planet should finally come to an end next year. In addition, average global temperatures are expected to rise as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.

As a result, the Met Office predicts that 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record. That’s no surprise, as the past eight years are on track to become the eight hottest on the books, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The Met Office predicts that 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record.

Next year is expected to be 10 consecutive years with global average temperatures at least 1 degree Celsius higher than the average during the pre-industrial period. The average global temperature in 2023 is expected to be between 1.08 and 1.32 degrees Celsius higher than before about 1900, when humans began to burn fossil fuels more intensely.

A degree hotter may not seem like much, especially since much of the US is coming out of a frigid winter storm. But that kind of change on a global scale has already led to catastrophic climate effects. Moreover, it is an average for the whole planet – some regions have been hit much harder by climate change than others.

“This year we have experienced several dramatic weather disasters that have claimed far too many lives and livelihoods and undermined health, food, energy and water security and infrastructure,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas. in a statement today. “A third of Pakistan has been flooded, causing huge economic losses and human casualties. Record-breaking heat waves have been seen in China, Europe, North and South America. The prolonged drought in the Horn of Africa threatens a humanitarian disaster.”

The Horn of Africa in particular has suffered a double whammy from both climate change and a La Niña weather pattern that exacerbates drought. A rare “triple-dip” La Niña has been in play since September 2020. The impact of La Niña varies from region to region – bringing heavier downpours to Australia and depriving East Africa of rain. But it generally has a temporary cooling effect on the world as a whole. Having endured its third winter, this La Niña will most likely end in April next year.

La Niña is one of the extreme phases of the recurring climate pattern El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). There is some evidence that extreme La Niña and El Niño events may occur twice as often with higher global temperatures. That risky outcome — and others, such as more severe floods and heat waves — could be avoided if humans manage to limit global warming to below about 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris climate agreement. But as the global forecast for 2023 shows, we don’t have much room for maneuver anymore.

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